A New Epidemic Spreading Model to Predict the Spread and Accumulation of Corona Virus (COVID-19) Positive Cases as a Function of Time

A New Epidemic Spreading Model to Predict the Spread and Accumulation of Corona Virus (COVID-19) Positive Cases as a Function of Time

Richard D. Sudduth*

Materials Research and Processing, LLC, 3718 Dunlin Shore Court, Peachtree Corners, GA 30092, 470-767-8660

Adv. Mater. Lett., 2021, 12 (7), 21071644

DOI: 10.5185/amlett.2021.071644

Publication Date (Web): Jun 12, 2021

E-mail: RichSudduth@Earthlink.Net

Abstract


Recently an article describing a new model to predict the dominant S shaped curve of the percolation threshold for electrical conducting composites was published by this author. This model was essentially the first to successfully address to whole concentration range for electrically conducting composites with the same model. Several possible applications where this new percolation threshold model might also be applicable were indicated in this article. One of these applications was the spread of disease in a population during a disease epidemic. At this point, this new Epidemic Spreading Model has been successful in predicting the spread of the Corona Virus (COVID-19) in the United States from the beginning of the accumulation of positive cases on January 22, 2020 using Corona Virus (COVID-19) data collected by Johns Hopkins University.  Interestingly, this model also appears to be able to separate the disease propagation from the disease mitigation. This model has also been reasonably successful in predicting the spread of the Corona Virus (COVID-19) worldwide as well. In addition, when the model values for the magnitude of the separate populations were neutralized it was apparent that the growth of the epidemic in the USA was significantly greater than that experienced by the World data.

Keywords

Corona Virus (COVID-19), percolation threshold, disease spread, epidemic, positive cases.

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